India’s GDP could be one of the worst among G-20 countries; Contracts by 23.9% in April-June quarter

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) Q1 of 2020-21, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q1 of 2020-21 is estimated at ` 26.90 lakh crore, as against ` 35.35 lakh crore in Q1 of 2019-20, showing a contraction of 23.9 percent as compared to 5.2 percent growth in Q1 2019-20. Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at Constant (2011-12) Prices for Q1 of 2020-21 is estimated at `25.53 lakh crore, as against ` 33.08 lakh crore in Q1 of 2019-20, showing a contraction of 22.8 percent.

GDP at Current Prices in the year Q1 2020-21 is estimated at ₹ 38.08 lakh crore, as against ₹ 49.18 lakh crore in Q1 2019-20, showing a contraction of 22.6 percent as compared to 8.1 percent growth in Q1 2019-20. GVA at Basic Price at Current Prices in Q1 2020-21, is estimated at `35.66 lakh crore, as against `44.89 lakh crore in Q1 2019-20, showing a contraction of 20.6 percent.
Estimates of GDP along with GVA at Basic Price by kind of economic activity, Expenditures on GDP at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, as well as percentage change and rates of expenditure components of GDP for Q1 2018-19 to 2020-21, are given in Statements 1 to 4.

The first quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Rabi season of 2019-20 (which ended in June 2020) obtained from the Department of Agriculture, Cooperation
& Farmers’ Welfare; estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for Milk, Egg, Meat and Wool for Livestock Sector from the Department of Animal Husbandry & Dairying and Fish production data from the Department of Fisheries.

Index of Industrial Production (IIP); monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) for the period April-June 2020-21 have been used. Performance of key sectors like Transport including Railways, Road, Air and Water Transport etc., Communication, Banking and Insurance during the period April-June 2020-21 has been taken into account while compiling the estimates.

Percentage change in the main indicators used in the estimation are listed below:

With a view to contain spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, restrictions were imposed on the economic activities not deemed essential, as also on the movement of people from 25 March, 2020. Though the restrictions have been gradually lifted, there has been an impact on the economic activities as well as on the data collection mechanisms. The timelines for filing statutory returns were also extended by most regulatory bodies. In these circumstances, the usual data sources were substituted by alternatives like GST, interactions with professional bodies etc. and which were clearly limited.

The data challenges in the case of other underlying macro-economic indicators like IIP and CPI, used in the estimation of National Accounts aggregates, will also have implications on
these estimates. Estimates are therefore likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar.

Source : http://www.mospi.gov.in/